If you’re like me you’ve been wondering how Trump would react to the inevitable news that he’s been overtaken in the polls.  Now that Ben Carson is a full 14 points ahead of Trump in Iowa, we’ll find out.

So far Trump’s reaction has been fairly predictable.  First, he’s attacked Carson.  Second, he’s attacked the media.  It’ll be very interesting to see how Trump handles tomorrow night’s debate, presumably he’ll continue to go after Carson.

Trump is maintaining a steady lead nationally, so the real question is whether Iowa is just a fluke.  Don’t forget, this is the state that voted to nominate Rick Santorum in 2012.  As Trump[‘s social media team] suggested on Twitter, it might just be that too much Monsanto corn makes people crazy.

The reality is it’s far too early to bet on any candidate in particular.  With over 100 days to go until the first Republican primary, the polls mean virtually nothing.  That’s right, we have more than 3 more months of this.  And that’s nothing, the Republicans have nine more debates scheduled.  Something tells me that’s more than enough time for people to get tired of Trump and Carson, which means it’s still a wide open field.

There are a few candidates you can definitely count out at this point (sorry, Rand Paul).  Establishment guys like Rubio, Cruz, and even Jebb are probably still more likely than Trump or Carson to take the nomination.  At some point the Republicans are going to have to acknowledge what everybody knows: running against Trump or Carson would be a cakewalk for Hillary.  You have to wonder when the GOP will be ready to admit that.